#Raw Materials

2023-02-02

How are ICAC projections doing halfway through the 2022/23 Season?

Making any kind of prediction about what will happen in the future is an inherently risky proposition, and that goes double for an industry as volatile as cotton. Nonetheless, it's the job ICAC Data Scientist Matthew Looney signed up for, and in the just-released edition of Cotton This Month, he takes a clear-eyed look at how accurate his projections are now that we're halfway through the 2022/23 season.

In the June 2022 edition of CTM, the first official publication of numerical value projections and narration surrounding the 2022/23 projections were disclosed. Global production was forecasted at 26.13 million tonnes while consumption was projected to decrease only slightly to 26.09 million tonnes. An increase in production and only a very small decrease in consumption certainly indicated good times ahead.

Then Mother Nature got involved, subjecting two major cotton producing countries, the United States and Pakistan, to severe drought and catastrophic flooding, respectively. The weather has always been a wild card for cotton but the erratic adverse weather patterns are intensifying as a result of climate change, so it's understandable when things that are completely unpredictable are missed.

'In hindsight, the high inflation numbers posted around the time of writing the June 2022 CTM should have been given more weight', said Mr Looney, author of Cotton This Month. 'All in all, 2022/23 has been a bad season for production, consumption — and projections. But on the bright side, the season is only half over, and I prefer to be optimistic', he added, pointing to falling inflation numbers and the fact that general economic indicators are moving in the right direction.

Price Projections

The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2022/23 ranges from 96 cents to 126 cents, with a midpoint at 104 cents per pound. The price projection for 2022/23 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2020/21 (estimate), in 2021/22 (estimate) and in 2022/23 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2021/22 (estimate) and 2022/23 (projection), and the average price in 2021/22. The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval.

Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 February 2023. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 March 2023.

Organic cotton at the crossroads: Ideology, evidence, and the road ahead

Organic cotton occupies one of the most contentious spaces in global agriculture. While praised by brands and consumers for its environmental ideals, it also faces persistent questions about yield stability, certification integrity, and scalability. The current edition of The ICAC Recorder cuts through the ideology to deliver a rigorous, evidence-based assessment of both sides of the debate.

AMSilk and Ajinomoto Foods Europe expand partnership to enable industrial-scale production of silk proteins

AMSilk GmbH (“AMSilk”), a global leader leader in biotech produced silk materials, today announced a significant expansion of its partnership with Ajinomoto Foods Europe (AFE), marking a key step in scaling the industrial production of its silk proteins. Building on the collaboration first established in 2023, the two companies have now entered into a long-term manufacturing and supply agreement, enabling the transition from industrial validation to dedicated, large-scale production.

Cotton made in Africa partners receive top marks in independent verifications

Cotton made in Africa® (CmiA) and CmiA Organic are two internationally recognised standards that aim to promote sustainable development in the African cotton sector south of the Sahara. To ensure the standards’ credibility among brands, retailers, and consumers, independent verifiers evaluate compliance on the ground. The verification results for 2025, now published in the Aggregated Verification & Implementation Report, were very strong: The verifiers awarded consistently very good remarks regarding management, people, prosperity, and the environment.

EU ban on destroying unsold clothing and footwear now in force

The European Union's ban on the destruction of unsold clothing, clothing accessories and footwear has entered into force. Since July 19, 2026, large companies across the EU have been prohibited from destroying unsold textile products, while medium-sized companies will be required to comply with the same rules from 2030.

Eastman Naia™ brings its inside-out denim vision to Kingpins New York

Following its debut at Kingpins Amsterdam, Eastman Naia™ brings the next chapter of its denim story to Kingpins New York, taking place July 22–23. At Booth Green 7, Naia™ presents its denim proposition built around three complementary design directions: Performance Denim, Fashion Denim and Authentic Denim.