In the June 2022 edition of CTM, the first official publication of numerical value projections and narration surrounding the 2022/23 projections were disclosed. Global production was forecasted at 26.13 million tonnes while consumption was projected to decrease only slightly to 26.09 million tonnes. An increase in production and only a very small decrease in consumption certainly indicated good times ahead. 

Then Mother Nature got involved, subjecting two major cotton producing countries, the United States and Pakistan, to severe drought and catastrophic flooding, respectively. The weather has always been a wild card for cotton but the erratic adverse weather patterns are intensifying as a result of climate change, so it's understandable when things that are completely unpredictable are missed.

'In hindsight, the high inflation numbers posted around the time of writing the June 2022 CTM should have been given more weight', said Mr Looney, author of Cotton This Month. 'All in all, 2022/23 has been a bad season for production, consumption — and projections. But on the bright side, the season is only half over, and I prefer to be optimistic', he added, pointing to falling inflation numbers and the fact that general economic indicators are moving in the right direction.