#Raw Materials

2023-02-02

How are ICAC projections doing halfway through the 2022/23 Season?

Making any kind of prediction about what will happen in the future is an inherently risky proposition, and that goes double for an industry as volatile as cotton. Nonetheless, it's the job ICAC Data Scientist Matthew Looney signed up for, and in the just-released edition of Cotton This Month, he takes a clear-eyed look at how accurate his projections are now that we're halfway through the 2022/23 season.

In the June 2022 edition of CTM, the first official publication of numerical value projections and narration surrounding the 2022/23 projections were disclosed. Global production was forecasted at 26.13 million tonnes while consumption was projected to decrease only slightly to 26.09 million tonnes. An increase in production and only a very small decrease in consumption certainly indicated good times ahead.

Then Mother Nature got involved, subjecting two major cotton producing countries, the United States and Pakistan, to severe drought and catastrophic flooding, respectively. The weather has always been a wild card for cotton but the erratic adverse weather patterns are intensifying as a result of climate change, so it's understandable when things that are completely unpredictable are missed.

'In hindsight, the high inflation numbers posted around the time of writing the June 2022 CTM should have been given more weight', said Mr Looney, author of Cotton This Month. 'All in all, 2022/23 has been a bad season for production, consumption — and projections. But on the bright side, the season is only half over, and I prefer to be optimistic', he added, pointing to falling inflation numbers and the fact that general economic indicators are moving in the right direction.

Price Projections

The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2022/23 ranges from 96 cents to 126 cents, with a midpoint at 104 cents per pound. The price projection for 2022/23 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2020/21 (estimate), in 2021/22 (estimate) and in 2022/23 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2021/22 (estimate) and 2022/23 (projection), and the average price in 2021/22. The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval.

Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 February 2023. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 March 2023.

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Lenzing Group positions bio‑based materials as a strategic asset for Europe’s economic security

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Beyond Cotton: Natural Fibres in the Spotlight at the Bremen Cotton Conference - Branded by DNFI

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International Women’s Day: Cotton made in Africa strengthens equality for women through targeted investments

On the occasion of International Women’s Day—which will be observed on 8 March under the motto “Rights. Justice. Action. For ALL Women and Girls”—the Aid by Trade Foundation (AbTF), which is responsible for Cotton made in Africa® (CmiA), underlines its long-standing and ongoing commitment to the equality of women in African cotton production areas.

Yarn Expo Spring 2026 concludes, connecting buyers with innovative selection of sustainable yarns and fibres

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ANDRITZ at Techtextil 2026: Sustainability and advanced technologies

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YKK launches “YZiP® Light” aluminum alloy zipper for cotton pants

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