Raw Materials

2020-06-03

Stocks to reach highest level in five years as consumption and trade suffer during pandemic

Falling consumption amidst rising production and ending stocks (c) 2020 ICAC
As noted last month, the May, June and July issues of Cotton This Month and Cotton Update are being offered free of charge to all. It is part of the ICAC's COVID-19 strategy to provide as much information as possible to hold the supply chain together until the pandemic is over.

Highlights from the June 2020 Cotton This Month include:

  • Global consumption is expected to decline 11.3% in 2019/20
  • If production rises 2% this season as projected, ending stock levels will swell to 21.75 million tonnes
  • Global trade is forecast to fall to 8.34 million tonnes in 2019/20

Global trade is expected to fall to 8.34 million tonnes in 2019/20, a 9.6% decrease from the previous season. Recovery for the coming 2020/21 season is expected to be modest under the current IMF projections for economic recovery. 

China, the world’s top consumer, is expected to fall 12% to 7.25 million tonnes. India is projected to suffer its own 12% slide to 4.75 million tonnes. Others feeling the pain include Pakistan (-7%), Turkey (-8%), Vietnam (-8%), Brazil (-11%) and Bangladesh (-25%).



Stocks to reach highest level in five years as consumption and trade suffer during pandemic

It appears that the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on this season are, unfortunately, developing the way everyone feared they would:

  • Consumption is expected to be 23 million tonnes in 2019/20, down 11.3% from the prior year.
  • Global trade is projected to decline 9.6% to 8.34 million tonnes.
  • With production expected to increase by 2% to 26.2 million tonnes, stocks could swell to 21.75 million tonnes — the highest they’ve been in five years.

PLEASE NOTE: During this time of crisis, nothing is more important than information you can trust — which is why the ICAC is making both Cotton This Month and Cotton Update free to every for May, June and July.

www.icac.org


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